Advanced probability tool for risk-based planning/prioritization of transmission investments

Manitoba Hydro developed the System Reliability Risk Model – a new method of quantification that factors in system complexity – in order to address some industry challenges. This tool compares the impact on reliability by considering potential single and simultaneous failures on the related system network. It factors in the system topology, load data (e.g., peak, duration curves and load forecast uncertainty), equipment reliability data, and network specific conditions (e.g. tapped lines, special protection schemes, common-mode outages, etc.), to calculate expected probabilistic indices expressed in terms of MWh/year.

It includes four different modules tailored to capture the reliability risks associated with different segments of the transmission network that may be required to avoid violation of network thermal and voltage reliability criteria.

In each case, the expected value is determined by weighing the probability and consequence of the potential system states resulting from the various failure events. These indices provide a means of monetizing transmission reliability risk within the corporation’s value framework that’s used for prioritization of investments.

This tool is currently in use at Manitoba Hydro. Other entities have requested additional details on these methodologies, including the CEA, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), Saskatchewan Power Corporation and BC Hydro. Even further, at the request of CEATI Manitoba Hydro has developed a guideline for the risk management of substation equipment and apparatus to address various challenges and uncertainties that the power industry is facing.

These indices provide a means of monetizing transmission reliability risk within the corporation’s value framework that’s used for prioritization of investments.