Four Scenarios

Electricity Canada’s National Emerging Issues Committee developed future scenarios that members could stress test against their current strategies.

Overview

In March of 2018, four scenarios were developed by a consensus of committee members and by board and council representation. These scenarios are the results of a very robust process that focused on 4 key areas driving change: Technology, Competitive Dynamics, Customer and Policy/Regulation.

The scenarios are utilized by the association and the industry to engage government, regulators and others to examine what the needs and structure of the electricity sector may be in the future. So far, the response from outside organizations, through Electricity Canada speeches and discussions, has been very positive and engaging.

In 2016, Electricity Canada’s Board of Directors refreshed their five-year Strategic plan to include the development of future scenarios, due to the fast-changing environment surrounding the utility sector.

In 2017, the National Emerging Issues Committee (NEIC) was established, bringing senior executives from across our sector to work through a Delphi process on what the future may hold.

In the spring of 2018, the NEIC, Board members and Council Chairs met for two days to develop the 4 future scenarios.

In June of 2019, Electricity Canada held, “An Electrifying Night at the Museum” where the scenarios were used to highlight National Electricity Month. Local writer, Kate Heartfield created consumer-based stories for each scenario and then performed by local actors. Electricity Canada members were also engaged to discuss how these potential changes would impact utilities.

The NEIC continues to work on developing future scenarios for key topics such as Electrification, Behind the Meter and Net Zero by 2050.

“The whole point of doing the scenario work was not to try and land or get consensus on what the future was going to look like, but to create worlds that were different enough that you could stress test your strategies against, which is really the value of any scenario development.” Karen Hutt, Past Chair of NEIC, President and CEO, Nova Scotia Power

Key Themes to Consider in our Electricity Future:

  • New products/services structures will be driven by end user demand and evolving needs
  • Process relationship re-engineering
  • Disruptive technologies and emerging Issues
  • Carbon/Environment

Four Elements to Monitor Speed and Depth of Change:

  • The consumer
  • Technology
  • Competitive dynamics
  • Government Policy and regulation

Top Three Game Changers:

  • Distributed Energy
  • Storage
  • Unknown

The Scenarios Identified by the Committee Are:

  • Off the Grid – Increase in DE and the migration of consumers off grid.
  • Closer to Home – Utilities adapt to rapid increase in distributed energy.
  • Large Scale Renewables – Sustainable role for traditional, large-scale grid.
  • Power to the Nation – A path towards National electrification and a National grid.

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